MetenaExample diagnostic
This is what you receive after running a diagnostic. The strategy, the portfolio and the figures on this page are fictional.
The strategy analysed
- Name
- Long-term adoption
- Target allocation
- BTC 50%, ETH 30%, SOL 20%
- Thesis
- Bitcoin is establishing itself as a store of value and smart contract networks are capturing a growing share of financial activity. Horizon: five years.
- Entry
- Scheduled purchase every month, for a fixed amount.
- Exit
- Trim 25% of a position when it doubles. No rule for selling on the way down.
- Invalidation
- Bitcoin below its 200-week moving average for four consecutive weekly closes.
Health score: 82 out of 100
82/ 100
Healthy
Weighted average of eight pillars. All 37 scored agents had sufficient data.
| Pillar | Weight | Score | Main finding |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital management | 18% | 70 | To watch80% of the portfolio rests on two highly correlated assets, with no rebalancing rule. |
| Risk management | 18% | 70 | CriticalNo downside exit rule: nothing limits the loss on a position before the whole strategy is invalidated. |
| On-chain | 13% | 90 | To watchBitcoin reserves on exchanges have been rising for three weeks. |
| Behaviour | 13% | 100 | HealthyRegular purchases, in line with the plan for six months. |
| Macro | 13% | 92 | To watchStrong correlation with US equities: the strategy follows the cycle of traditional markets. |
| News | 10% | 83 | To watchA regulatory decision on one of the three assets is expected within the month. |
| Optimisation | 9% | 75 | To watchFees on the monthly purchases amount to 1.4% a year. Grouping the orders would reduce them. |
| Technical | 6% | 88 | To watchUnderlying trend is upward, momentum is fading on ether. |
A pillar shows the status of its most severe finding. Risk management scores 70 and still carries a critical alert.
Where the analyses contradict each other
- Technical and on-chain
- The price trend remains upward while deposits on exchanges are increasing, which often precedes selling. The diagnostic does not settle the question and states that the bullish signal lacks confirmation.
- Behaviour and risk management
- The plan is followed to the letter, but it provides for nothing in the event of a prolonged decline. The discipline score is good even though the rule is missing.
The weaknesses, in order of severity
- No downside exit. Between the current price and the invalidation condition, the strategy lets a loss of about 45% run with nothing planned.
- Concentration. 80% of the portfolio in bitcoin and ether, whose prices move together most of the time.
- No rebalancing. If bitcoin rises alone, its share goes above 50% and no rule brings it back to its target.
Suggested adjustments
These are avenues to examine. The decision is yours, and each one can be backtested before you adopt it.
- Write an intermediate reduction rule, for example trimming a position that has lost 30% from its high.
- Set a rebalancing band: return to the target allocation when an asset drifts from it by more than ten points.
- Move from a monthly purchase to a quarterly purchase to reduce fees, if the amount allows it.
Sources cited
Each finding points to the data it rests on. In this example:
- Price and volume history (Binance)
- Exchange reserves and on-chain flows
- Three articles from the specialist press, linked in the report
- The investor’s journal: six months of purchases
What comes next
With Premium, the full diagnostic can be run again once a day. Between two diagnostics, Metena watches your invalidation conditions and alerts you when one is met.
