MetenaCrypto investment thesis: definition and example
Your reason for investing, written down: why you buy, over what horizon, and what has to happen for you to be right. A clear thesis stops you improvising when the market moves.
Definition
A thesis fits in a few sentences. It names the asset, the reason to buy it, the horizon and the facts that have to happen. “I am buying ETH for five years because activity on layer-2 networks keeps growing and part of the fees flows back to the main network” is a thesis. “ETH will go up” is not.
Its value shows when the price moves hard. A 30% drop that touches no point of the thesis calls for no decision. News that contradicts one of its points calls for one, even if the price is rising.
A thesis comes with its invalidation conditions: the facts that would prove it wrong. Without them, it can be defended forever.
Worked example
Thesis: “I hold BTC for ten years as a store of value outside the banking system. I am right if adoption by institutions and states continues. I am wrong if a technical flaw compromises the network or if a coordinated ban by major countries makes holding it impractical.”
In Metena
Metena has you write your thesis before anything else, then analyses it: clarity, horizon, whether invalidation conditions are present. The diagnostic tests it against market data when you ask.
Notify me at launchRelated terms
- Invalidation condition
- The precise fact that would prove your thesis wrong and trigger your exit, for example “I exit if BTC closes two weeks below $20,000”. Writing it in advance stops you rationalizing it later.
- Constitution
- In Metena, all your rules written in cold blood: thesis, action rules, invalidation conditions and money management. You reread it the day sticking to it gets hard.
- Health score
- A number out of 100 that sums up the strength of your strategy: thesis, risk, discipline and money management. It breaks down pillar by pillar. It is not a price forecast.
- DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging)
- Investing a fixed amount at regular intervals, for example every week, whatever the price. It smooths your entry price and stops you hunting for the “right moment”.
Related guides
- Building a crypto strategy from A to Z
- Thesis, allocation, position sizing, entry and exit rules, testing: the parts of a written crypto strategy, in the order in which they are decided.
- Bitcoin DCA: what seven years of data show
- Investing a fixed amount in bitcoin every week: real results since 2019, comparison with a lump sum, the worst time to start and the average cost.
- Writing your investment thesis and invalidation conditions
- How to write a crypto investment thesis, turn it into rules and set invalidation conditions, with the real examples of Terra-LUNA and FTX in 2022.
- When to sell your crypto: writing your exit plan
- Take-profit levels, stop, invalidation condition, rebalancing: four reasons to sell that should be written before buying, with worked examples.
Put these ideas into practice.
Write your strategy in a few minutes: Metena analyses it when you ask and explains each term in context.
Notify me at launchEducational content. It is not investment advice. Crypto-assets carry a high risk that can go as far as the total loss of capital.